China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Duncan Wrigley
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
In one line: April's weak economic data due to energy shock and severe weather
In one line: rise in fiscal deposits likely points to temporary building activity disruptions due to severe weather.
In one line: People curbed spending in response to fuel price hikes in March
In one line: Tokyo inflation subdued thanks to expanded childcare subsidies;
Korean exports buoyed by robust chip sales
In one line: China's manufacturing sector holds up well in April; Services slows after the holiday boost; Construction PMI drop is puzzling
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
In one line: BoJ on hold, but Governor Ueda's lack of clear policy signalling leaves JPY exposed
- The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.75% yesterday, amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
- Governor Ueda’s mixed message on policy direction could invite speculation on USDJPY.
- We think a June rate hike is still on the table, as long as prospects for a lasting ceasefire have improved by then.
In one line: China's lopsided Q1 GDP growth bump likely the year's high-water mark
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI buoyed by post-holiday seasonality; oil price shock hits input prices
In one line: China's manufacturing activity resilient, despite jump in energy-related costs
- The official March PMIs support our view that China will be relatively resilient to the energy-price shock.
- Output and demand activity indicators were solid, despite the surging manufacturing input price gauge.
- Private-sector sentiment took a small dent in March, but nothing like the fall amid last year’s tariff war.
