China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Duncan Wrigley
In one line: LPRs unchanged, with China relying on fiscal policy to support growth
- Booming Korean exports in the first 20 days of February are mainly a semiconductor story…
- …Chip exports skyrocketed almost 180% thanks to rising prices and volumes.
- The BoK is likely to hold rates on Friday, despite soft activity outside the tech sector.
In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
- Fresh thinking on China’s property market is emerging, but with no new policy ideas just yet.
- The new view stresses property as household wealth and thus linked to consumption demand.
- The back-and-forth in state support for Vanke hints at tensions as to how to tackle the developer debt crisis.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
- She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
- On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.
In one line: Japan's regular pay growth steady, as PM Takaichi secures resounding election win
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI posts a modest gain, largely reflecting pre-holiday seasonality
- China’s manufacturing PMIs for January diverged, pointing to robust high-tech versus weak low-tech.
- Soft data for output prices improved, but this likely reflects a narrow set of prices, like non-ferrous metals.
- Construction-sector sentiment slumped to its lowest since the outbreak of Covid, despite policy support.
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs indicate sharp divergence between old and new industries; Korean PMI lifted by AI-related chip sector
In one line: Sharp drop in Tokyo inflation largely due to one-off factors; won't change BoJ outlook
- Private firms are turning more optimistic about profits, with good reason, but only in certain sectors...
- ...The AI boom, green energy transition and industrial upgrading are lifting profits for related sectors.
- But Q4 consumer sentiment remained glum, indicating continued sluggish domestic demand this year.
- China’s A-share markets are surging, despite weak private-sector business sentiment and profits…
- …and are likely to continue to benefit from ample liquidity, from retail investors and overseas earnings.
- Regulators would likely intervene, though, if they view the market rise as too fast or overly based on leverage.
In one line: Japan's overall exports rise, despite falling shipments to the US
- Chinese policymakers apparently see little prospect of a short-term residential property-market recovery.
- The home provident fund reform is unlikely to boost property demand, barring a huge funding injection.
- Developer credit risk remains high, as home sales income falls and policy support is adjusted.
- Policymakers won’t be flustered by the Q4 GDP growth slippage, hit by flagging investment and consumption.
- They can bank on solid export growth, thanks to burgeoning competitiveness in higher-tech products.
- Quasi-fiscal policy support backed by the policy banks is still coming through; more property support is likely.
In one line: China's Q4 GDP reports torpid domestic demand versus vibrant industrial output
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
In one line: Non-government credit demand still sluggish amid structural adjustment
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
