China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Duncan Wrigley
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
- Japan’s September flash PMIs reveal worsening manufacturing woes, despite lower US tariffs.
- Services activity remains strong, even though extreme weather dented tourism activity.
- We think the BoJ will hike the policy rate next month, though it will be a close call amid political risks.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
- China's August producer deflation improved, led by steel and coal, likely due to reviving building demand.
- Anti-price-war policies are likely to have more effect in traditional sectors than in high-tech ones.
- Core consumer inflation is weak but gradually rising, indicative of the slow repair in domestic demand.
- The August RatingDog services PMI flashed a warning signal about job losses, despite strong activity.
- A court ruling on mandatory social security payments is the likely culprit, leading firms to trim workers.
- Local governments probably won't fully enforce the rule, but the uncertainty created is hitting jobs already.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged yesterday, citing household-debt worries.
- The Bank is probably also seeking to avoid upsetting the US with a rate cut which could weaken the KRW.
- A likely government housing-supply plan and Fed rate cut in September should allow a BoK rate cut in Q4.
- Tier-one cities are leading another round of targeted residential property market easing in China.
- The goal is stabilisation, however, rather than returning to solid growth, so expect an L-shaped recovery.
- Industrial profits barely improved in July amid excess supply; manufacturing profits are rising though.
- The PBoC on Monday gave no hint of imminent easing, despite July’s underwhelming activity data.
- China is likely to go slow on further policy support, so it has options if trade talks with the US hit a wall.
- The property market is worsening again, putting developer finances under pressure.
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
- China’s consumer sentiment is near historic lows, weighed down by property- and job-market worries.
- Employment sentiment is nearly as feeble as at the global financial crisis low point.
- More people expect broad inflation than deflation, which is largely confined to producer prices.
- The BoJ yesterday kept the policy rate on hold at 0.5%, as widely expected.
- The Bank remains cautious about the growth outlook, despite the US-Japan trade deal.
- The BoJ did raise its inflation forecast though, because of food inflation.
- H1 went quite well, all things considered, but China still wants to project a strong image to the world.
- China’s new residential sales weakened further in the first four weeks of July.
- The new child-rearing subsidies are a step in the right direction, but small by international standards.
- Deputy Governor Uchida said on Wednesday that the US-Japan tariff deal reduces uncertainty...
- ...hinting that the BoJ will revise up its growth and inflation outlook next week.
- The July composite flash PMI was steady, though services and manufacturing activity diverged.
- We are raising our growth and inflation forecasts for Japan, after yesterday’s relatively benign trade deal.
- The BoJ is likely to resume rate hikes in October, as it forms an initial view on the 2026 wage outlook.
- USDJPY is likely to strengthen moderately; but political risk was evident in the 40-year JGB auction yesterday.
- .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
- …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
- Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.
