China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korea’s 20-day export growth rebounded, likely supported by stockpiling as the US’s deadline nears.
- Shipments to the US, EU and Taiwan were the main drivers, while chip exports were strong in June.
- The trade-talk logjam continues; we expect the grace period to be extended, allowing more negotiating time.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's commercial banks hold benchmark lending rates steady in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoJ slowed tapering pace for next fiscal year but stood pat on policy rates in June
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- - CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- - BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
- The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
- The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s solid retail sales figure for May was boosted by earlier online retail sales and subsidy policies.
- Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth are slowing; expect the policy banks to step up soon.
- Policymakers are likely to opt for a mid-year top-up and refinement of targeted support; no big stimulus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s May steady broad credit growth was based mainly on strong government bond issuance, again.
- Private sector credit demand still dull; the M1 uptick isn’t meaningful and will probably reverse in June.
- The financial system is absorbing rapid government bond issuance with no sign of strain; PBoC has tools.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China faces a long-term demographic headwind, as its workforce declines and population ages...
- ...but also an opportunity to shift 20% of the workforce into jobs with productivity three times higher.
- Growth potential will still be substantial after the structural adjustment; plus AI is a wild card.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Handshakes in London iron out implementation of the US-China deal struck in Geneva, subject to approval.
- The 90-day tariff reprieve revived China’s exports in May, temporarily, with trade diversion to the EU…
- …Uncertainty-induced front-loading demand puts a floor under monthly growth ahead of reprieve expiry.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's services sector expands at a slower pace in May
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rose as US importers rushed orders ahead of Tariff reprieve expiry.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
