China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)
- - CHINA’S WEAK DEMAND CONTRASTS WITH BUOYANT STOCKS
- - BOJ WAITING FOR DUST TO SETTLE BEFORE HIKING RATES
- - ROCKY EXPORT OUTLOOK KEY TO KOREAN GROWTH
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.
In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.
In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
In one line: NBS non-manufacturing PMI dragged down by construction activity in July.
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
In one line: China’s industrial profits slid further in June, weighed down by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession
- China’s consumer prices are teetering on the brink of deflation, with July’s rate falling back to 0.0%.
- Producer deflation has deepened further. Any progress on anti-involution will take time to appear.
- Trade uncertainty will weigh on factory-gate prices regardless; all eyes are on the 15th five-year plan.
- China’s FX reserves fell less than the market expected, but still staged the first drop since December.
- The currency-valuation effect was the main downward driver, and the bond-valuation effect to a lesser extent.
- The evolution of China’s FX reserves in H2 hinges critically on the outlook for USD and the Fed.
- - CHINA’S PRICE WARS WILL PROMPT POLICY RESPONSE
- - BOJ STRIKES CAUTIOUS TONE ON GROWTH OUTLOOK
- - BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
