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Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Boosted by a rebound in multi-family in the Northeast.
Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt. A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a...
Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and...
Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions. Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in...
Colombia's economic recovery continues; output is well above its pre-crisis level, but risks are emerging. The pace of the rebound will ease soon, due to high inflation and...
Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon. The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles...
A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside. Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the...
Year-over-year growth in house prices slowed in July, following the tapering of government support. Expect a further slowdown in Q4, when the SDLT threshold will return to...
Mexico -- Benign conditions prevail, for now Colombia -- A decent rebound, but risks prevail Peru -- Up, thanks to politics and commodities
Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months... ...But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline...
Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid. The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months,...
The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact,...
EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid. EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP...
The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate... ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is...
Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging. A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in...
Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July. The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend...
Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend. Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less...
The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual... ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no...
Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow. Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in...
The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023. Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't...
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