Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Housing Supply

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August 2021

In one line: Boosted by a rebound in multi-family in the Northeast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Datanotes

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt. A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

21 Sept 2021 Inflation Next Year Will be a Challenge for the ECB and Markets

Our 2022 core inflation forecast signal that trouble is brewing for markets and the ECB. Core inflation will fall in Q1, but it will be back at just under 2% by spring, and...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor, Eurozone Key Issues

20 Sept 2021 How Quickly is EZ Core Inflation Rising? We Can't Yet be Sure

Core inflation in the Eurozone is rising, but it's difficult to say how quickly, given one-off distortions. Is the ECB preparing markets for a lift to inflation forecasts in...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor

20 Sept 2021 Colombia's Recovery Consolidated in Q3, but Momentum will Ease Soon

Colombia's economic recovery continues; output is well above its pre-crisis level, but risks are emerging. The pace of the rebound will ease soon, due to high inflation and...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

17 Sept 2021 Brazil's Recovery Continues; Argentina's Political Mess Worsens

Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon. The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

17 Sept 2021 Winter is Coming in Europe; Hopefully it Won't be Too Cold

A cold winter will turn rising gas prices into a macroeconomic issue; Q4 risks are tilted to the downside. Car sales in the Eurozone aren't going anywhere, mirroring the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor, Eurozone Key Issues

17 Sept 2021 House Prices Should Recover Steadily in 2022 after Q4's Fall

Year-over-year growth in house prices slowed in July, following the tapering of government support. Expect a further slowdown in Q4, when the SDLT threshold will return to...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Economic Monitor

16 Sept 2021 Less-Grim Political Conditions Support a Modest Equity Rebound

Mexico -- Benign conditions prevail, for now Colombia -- A decent rebound, but risks prevail Peru -- Up, thanks to politics and commodities

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months... ...But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

15 Sept 2021 Retail Activity in Brazil Rebounded in July, but Momentum will Ease Soon

Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid. The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months,...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

15 Sept 2021 Will High, and Rising, Gas Prices Keep EZ Inflation Elevated?

The trend in oil prices suggests energy inflation will soon fall and even turn negative next year in the EZ... ...But high, and rising, gas prices will offset this impact,...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor, Eurozone Key Issues

14 Sept 2021 How to Think about the Trajectory of EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year

EZ fiscal policy will tighten next year, but it will remain much more supportive than before Covid.  EU grants will fund public expenditure to the tune of about 0.5% of GDP...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor, Eurozone Key Issues

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate... ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

13 Sept 2021 Accelerating Inflation in Brazil Points to a Selic Rate Above Neutral Soon

Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging. A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in...

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July. The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Economic Monitor

13 Sept 2021 The EZ Industrial Slumber Continues, but Italy is Doing Fine

Industry in the EZ seemingly got off to an OK start in Q3, but we doubt this is a turn in the trend. Italian output continues to shine, thanks to out-sized gains in less...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor, Eurozone Key Issues

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual... ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow. Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

9 Sept 2021 What Does the Latest Surge in Energy Prices Mean for CPI Inflation?

The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023. Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Economic Monitor

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