Pantheon Publications

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, March

In one line: Japan’s Tokyo inflation ticks up in March, thanks to a smaller fall in energy prices

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, March

In one line: Manufacturing activity expands for the first time in 6 months 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

2 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property market still festering; no big policy shift yet

• Chinese officials are downplaying the risks linked to the continued struggles of the property sector.
• But the new-housing market showed little sign of reviving in the first two months of 2024.
• Piecemeal policy support is unlikely to bring about a near-term recovery in new-home sales.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 March 2024

China’s industrial profits bounce in February, owing to base effects

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, March

In one line: China lending rates unchanged in March as per market consensus

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

28 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's industrial profits surge on base effects; awaiting spending boost

• China’s industrial profits soared, on the low base last year when the country emerged from zero-Covid.
• Capital equipment and consumption goods manufacturing make up most of the profit improvement.
• We expect a firmer recovery after the implementation of the action plans to upgrade consumption.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ decisions, Japan, March

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 March 2024

In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

20 March 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ marches towards normalisation, scrapping negative rates and YCC

• The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, while ending YCC and risky asset purchases.
• At the press conference, Governor Ueda’s rhetoric on the future path of the policy rate was neutral.
• Japan’s monetary policy should stay accommodative unless significant inflationary pressures mount.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: MLF rate, China, March

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 March 2024

PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022

China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 March 2024

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, February

In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, February

In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, February

In one line:  Investors return to China’s stock markets in February

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 March 2024 China+ Monitor China's CPI bounces; upstream industries still see deflationary pressure

• China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
• By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
• We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, January-February

In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 March 2024

Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks

China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 March 2024 China+ Monitor China exports more to emerging markets in January and February

• China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
• Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
• New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 March 2024: China sticks to targeted support

Premier Li confirms targeted stimulus only, as China reshapes its growth model; Tokyo inflation rises

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+