- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s trade deficit plunged to an historic low of -$31.5B in October, due partly to painful seasonals.
- Negative oil effects will soon reverse, and we welcome the October bounce in non-oil imports.
- Upstream price pressures remain benign, making soon-to-be-sticky CPI inflation easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Why we aren’t panicking about the record deficit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A solid start to Q4 for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- We expect India’s Q3 GDP at end-November to show a big drop in growth to 4.2%, from 7.8% in Q2.
- The flattering boost from discrepancies in Q2 is unreliable, and consumption was weak in Q3.
- Disinflation, which continued in October, will likely partly unwind in the short run, due to onion prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A broad-based moderation, as favourable base effects reverse partially.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thailand’s Q3 GDP report next Monday should show a leap in growth to 2.9%, from 1.8% in Q2…
- …But this will be due largely to a material drop in imports; domestic demand likely weakened further.
- Retail sales momentum in Indonesia remains lackluster, keeping price-hike expectations at bay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Government spending saves the Philippines’ Q3 GDP
Philippine sales entered Q4 with encouraging momentum
Indonesian retail sales will be ending 2023 still below the pre-Covid level
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in the Philippines surprised to the upside in Q3, leaping to 5.9%, from 4.3% in Q2...
- ...But largely thanks to an unsustainable bounce in public spending; fiscal consolidation isn’t over.
- Consumption continues to slow amid weak balance sheets, while lacklustre investment is here to stay.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Proof that the BSP’s out-of-cycle rate hike was rash
The Philippines’ smallest deficit in almost a year isn’t exactly good news
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Inflation in the Philippines plunged in October, making the BSP’s recent hike look more reckless...
- ...The U-turn in rice prices is now feeding through, and the unbroken core disinflation is far from over.
- Outright deflation has taken hold in Thailand, but it should be relatively mild and last until early Q2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- GDP growth in Indonesia slowed to 4.9% in Q3, from 5.2% in Q2, falling just shy of expectations...
- ...Public and private consumption were largely to blame, and improvement any time soon is unlikely.
- Exports were grim, but the worst is over; the same cannot be said, however, for equipment capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s Q3 GDP miss is worse than it looks
The government’s fuel price cuts brings about deflation in Thailand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
