In one line: Retail sales still went nowhere in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Food disinflation offsets impact from electricity tariff rise.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Deficit narrows again, to three-year low.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A grim April but retail sales should recover as the weather improves.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
April CPI stays unexpectedly within the BSP's target range
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
- The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
- The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Lower borrowing costs sparked a wave of refinancing in Q1, which likely will unwind in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening growth and slowing inflation, but watch the jump in input costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
An ugly report, but don't call it stagflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: A setback, in line with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
