Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
- Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
- Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
- We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- GDP likely declined in March, with falls across the board in the major activity components.
- We still expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Underlying growth likely held firm in March; a good result given the shock of the Iran war.
Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.
Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales
Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.
- Oil consumption has risen despite soaring prices; goods producers are preparing for disruptions.
- Surveys point to a bigger rise in core goods prices than implied by the rise in oil prices alone.
- We still look for a further 75bp easing but we now expect the first cut in December, not September.
- Mexican peso — Resilient rebound as USD softens
- Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
- Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease
- April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
- Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
- We will need to remove a rate hike from our forecast if the peace-plan-related energy-price fall is sustained.
- But the April PMI suggests that firms are already contending with surging inflation pressures…
- ...And resilient growth means that rate-setters must prioritise price pressures over output losses.
In one line: SNB to stand pat through 2026 as the economy faces stagflation.
- In one line: Still losing steam.
