Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
- The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
- The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
- Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
- Colombia — Violence, reform and fiscal crisis
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut.
- The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long…
- ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
- Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
- The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services.
- Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking.
- Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Demand still falling amid high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying sales volumes holding up...for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Holding on to Q1's gains, for now.
Samuel TombsUS
