Pantheon Publications

12 May 2026 US Monitor Retail sales likely held their ground in April, but look set to falter later in Q2

• The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
• We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
• Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.

12 May 2026 LatAm Monitor Colombia's inflation outlook worsens; BanRep to hike further

• Services inflation and labour-cost indexation are driving higher inflation in Colombia.
• Food and weather shocks add pressure, but excess demand increasingly dominates the outlook.
• BanRep likely will continue to hike, as persistent inflation will require more action ahead.

13 May 2026 China+ Monitor China's inflation still under control despite energy bump

• China’s consumer inflation rose 0.2pp to 1.2% in April, on the back of fuel-price rises.
• The government will continue to soften the impact of high international energy prices on end-users.
• Industry is likely to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, amid still-sluggish domestic demand..

12 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor How to find the AI boom in the EZ macroeconomic data

• Strong growth in IP investment, ex-Ireland, and capex in IT show the AI theme in the EZ macro data.
• The US is sprinting ahead on AI investment, while Europe is still walking, barely…
• …ECB data suggest US digital investment is up 80% since 2020, compared with no change in the EZ.

12 May 2026 UK Monitor CPI preview 1: dropping to 2.9% as utility price cap is cut

• We expect CPI inflation to slow to 2.9% in April from 3.3% in March.
• Utility prices fell 6.6% in April, and a range of government-set prices will rise less than a year earlier.
• Our CPI inflation call is 0.1pp lower than rate-setters expect, but we match their services inflation forecast.

CN Datanote: Exports, China, March

In one line: China trade surplus hit by soft exports and hi-tech driven imports

PM Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, April

In one line: BoK stays put, leaving canvas blank for incoming Shin amid war-induced growth and inflation risks.

PM Datanote: Wages, Japan, February

In one line: Japan’s solid wage growth beats expectations, supporting an April’s BoJ hike.

PM Datanote: Whole Economy PMI, Hong Kong, March

In one line: Hong Kong PMI falls below 50 for first time since August 2025 amid war uncertainty in the Middle East

PM Datanote: RatingDog Services PMI, China, March

In one line: China’s RatingDog services PMI cools on payback effect, wither employment softening

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April 2026

Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.

PM Datanote: Exports, Korea, March

In one line: Korea exports surge on higher chip prices and post-LNY boost;  the BoK turns cautious 

CN Datanote: CPI, China, March

In one line: China CPI: Post LNY decline less pronounced as energy contribution rises 

CN Datanote: PPI, China, March

In one line: China ends 41-month of PPI deflation as war-driven energy spike lifts prices

CN Datanote: PPI, China, April

In one line: China’s PPI jumps on energy shock as war-driven reflation accelerates

CN Datanote: CPI, China, April

In one line: China’s CPI surprises to the upside as energy inflation accelerates in April

CN Datanote: Exports, China, April

In one line: China trade surplus rebounds as tech demand outweighs war-driven energy shock

CN Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, April

In one line: China’s reverse jump in reserves reflects changes in market risk appetite

CN Datanote: RatingDog Services PMI, China, April

In one line: China’s RatingDog services PMI lifted by domestic demand on new product launches and innovation

CN Datanote: Whole Economy PMI, Hong Kong, April

In one line: Hong Kong PMI weakens as employment and domestic demand deteriorate amid war uncertainty