Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.
Samuel TombsUS
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Business sentiment eases despite improvement in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Upturns in real M1 growth and credit impulse continue.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Decent headline, but rising unemployment fears is a red flag.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
TRADE NOISE TESTS LATAM’S RESILIENCE…
- …AND TIGHT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS REMAIN A THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
GROWTH HOLDS UP BETTER THAN SURVEYS IMPLY
- …THE MPC CAN CUT ONLY TWICE MORE THIS YEAR
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Real consumption likely fell by about 0.2% in January; adverse weather played a role...
- ...but the sharp fall in confidence points to a sustained rise in the saving rate back above 4%.
- Services sector investment intentions are also losing their shine amid renewed political uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Swiss GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q4, much better than the measly 0.1% growth in EZ GDP.
- Growth will slow, falling in line with that in the EZ, as net trade drags on GDP and spending growth slows.
- The US President has fired another tariff threat at the EU, but we are still in waiting mode.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher interest repayments and lower tax receipts will increase forecast government borrowing.
- We estimate that the Chancellor’s £8.9B headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out.
- We expect the Chancellor to respond on March 26 with back-loaded public spending cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Little sign of recovery in consumer confidence, but maybe the election changed that.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
RISKS TO OUR HAWKISH ECB CALL ARE FOR LESS EASING...
- ...ASSUMING ONLY SMALL US TRADE TARIFF INCREASES
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Finally smelling the coffee.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
