Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Bank Indonesia resumed easing, with a 25bp cut; the Q1 GDP letdown was even graver in actuality.
- The Board’s lower credit growth forecast is already looking too optimistic; we see 75bp more in cuts.
- US and ASEAN front-loading continues to mask weak Chinese demand for Malaysian exports.
- Korea saw improvements in early trade data for May, with exports falling at a slower pace.
- Japan’s export growth in April was hit by US tariffs on foreign cars and steel products.
- The BoK will resume easing to offset tariff impacts; the BoJ will pause rate hikes and assess negotiations.
- The EC’s new economic forecasts see a ‘Goldilocks’ boom next year; the economy won’t be that lucky.
- We see stronger growth in Germany than the EC next year, but weaker in France and Spain.
- The EC’s forecast for EZ inflation in 2026, at 1.7%, rests on too dovish energy and core goods forecasts.
- Administered, government-set and indexed price hikes drove inflation up to 3.5% in April.
- Erratic factors added only modestly to inflation, so the MPC will have to take the headline seriously.
- Accumulated news—growth, lower tariffs, inflation—leads us to expect only one more rate cut this year.
- Homebase data signal a 150K rise in May private payrolls, matching the average of the last three months...
- ...But its skew towards hospitality means it is a poor overall indicator; others have a better track record.
- Major consumer confidence surveys have diverged markedly; we suspect political bias is the problem.
- US - How stimulative will fiscal policy be if the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes?
- EUROZONE - Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing
- UK - MPC preview: dovish shift, but not as much as the market expected
- CHINA+ - Japan’s weak Q1 GDP print reinforces BoJ’s decision to pause
- EM ASIA - US front-running boosts Thailand’s Q1, but it’s all downhill from here
- LATAM - Banxico delivers another 50bp rate cut amid weak growth
- Chile’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, led by services and government spending, despite a drag from mining.
- Its external accounts improved in Q1 at the headline level, despite portfolio outflows and income deficits.
- The investment outlook is brighter, given less political risk, but structural issues and uncertainty loom large.
- EZ construction output is slowing after a strong finish to 2024, but leading indicators are improving.
- The EZ current account surplus soared in March, reflecting tariff front-running in goods.
- Portfolio outflows fell sharply in March, and likely crashed outright in April.
- Official house price inflation reached a 26-month high in February, at 5.4%, up from 4.8% in January.
- Momentum will dip temporarily as the stamp-duty distortion unwinds…
- ...But strong wage growth and falling interest rates should still deliver house price inflation of 4% in 2025.
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
In one line: Headed for 2% over the summer; enough for two more ECB cuts?
- In one line: China's PMI data offers little cause for celebration
- In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.
- In one line: Q1 surge driven by agriculture; broader gains show resilience.
- In one line: Q1 growth solid, but momentum set to ease.
- The reconciliation bill implies a 1.8% boost to the deficit, relative to the baseline of a small fiscal tightening.
- But more pay-fors likely will be added in order to pass Congress, and tariffs will offset most of the boost.
- Temporary and short-term jobs are holding up well, providing some reassurance about employment.
- Brazil’s economic activity surged in Q1, driven by agriculture and resilience in industry and services…
- …Momentum is likely to wane as tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty take hold.
- Colombia’s real GDP rose strongly in Q1, thanks to domestic demand, but structural risks persist.
- GDP growth in Thailand slipped modestly in Q1, to 3.1% from 3.3%, with exports giving a big cushion…
- …But our global forecasts point to goods export growth slowing below 2% by Q4, from nearly 14%.
- This will increasingly expose headline GDP growth to the broad-based sluggishness domestically.
- China’s April retail sales, investment and industrial production point to flagging growth.
- Policymakers saw this coming, hence the PBoC’s May 7 announcement of interest rate and RRR cuts.
- The slowdown stems more from existing issues, with the direct impact of the tariff war still emerging.
- EZ headline inflation is about to fall to 2%, helping to get further ECB easing over the line, but how much?
- Survey data continue to signal significant upside risk to food inflation; energy inflation will rebound too.
- Services inflation will drop sharply in May but is set to be sticky around 3%.
