Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
