Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
In one line: Still improving.
In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
- Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years.
- Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
- The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs.
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
- China’s April industrial profits ticked up a notch, helped by the consumer goods and equipment policies.
- But auto profits are still falling, despite rising sales, owing to fierce competition and excess supply.
- The tariff-war impact is likely to be felt in the coming months, hitting the profits of export sectors.
- Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
- German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
- EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
- Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
- …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
- Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
