Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Few signs of a spillover from higher energy prices into core import costs, yet.
- In one line: House price inflation to remain weak in 2026 as higher interest costs bite.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits permanent hiring, but vacancies improve, suggesting the job market is holding up.
Margins are unlikely to remain this high for long.
Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.
- Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
- Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
- Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.
- Durable goods and targeted credit programmes continue to cushion consumption in Brazil.
- Food inflation and softer essential spending point to growing pressure on household purchasing power.
- Fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus support near-term activity but complicate the disinflation process.
- Malaysia may be heading for an early election, but beneath the surface ethnic tensions are brewing.
- These tensions are coupled with rising religious conservatism, particularly among Malaysia’s youth.
- Governance is likely to become more religious, to fend off Islamist parties, hurting long-term growth.
- President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week marked a gradual improvement in bilateral relations...
- ...Which is likely to continue while Mr. Trump is in dealmaking mode to salvage his low popularity.
- The two countries’ different approaches to the AI transition should diffuse one key source of strain.
- Downside risks to EZ economic growth are widening, but we see broadly stable nominal growth.
- The starting position of public deficits makes fiscal balances vulnerable to a slowdown in the economy.
- A recession would widen the EZ budget deficit to 6% of GDP, triggering pro-cyclical tightening.
- The economy was ticking along fine before the war, even if Q1 GDP exaggerates growth somewhat.
- Ten-year gilt yields have another 30-to-40bp to rise if Andy Burnham wins a Labour leadership contest.
- April inflation should drop to 3.0% in data published this week, while the jobless rate should hold steady.
In one line: rise in fiscal deposits likely points to temporary building activity disruptions due to severe weather.
- In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- Manufacturing continues to drag on activity in Mexico, due to weak demand and capex.
- Construction volatility and the uneven execution of public investments are limiting a broader recovery.
- Mining and AI-linked exports offer partial support, but industry still points to subdued growth in H2.
- Leading indicators on EZ investment took a hit in early Q2, but some are overstating the weakness.
- Upturns in German manufacturing and French construction capex remain upside risks for 2026.
- Surveys signal balanced inventories ahead of frontrunning the supply shock caused by the Iran war.
- Some of March’s strong GDP gain was front-running ahead of supply-chain disruption...
- …But our measure of underlying activity grew solidly too, suggesting genuine strength.
- We now expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2, up from 0.1% previously.
In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds in May, slightly.
In one line: Boosted by capital goods.
In one line: The core will snap back in May, but a fuel duty cut will lower energy inflation.
