Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The looming deadline for the increase in “reciprocal” tariffs has been delayed again, now to August 1.
- The upside surprise in German industrial output in May points to a better EZ print than we expected.
- EZ services had a rough start to Q2, but surveys have improved and point to a better Q2 than Q1.
- We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
- Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
- Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.
In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
