Pantheon Publications

18 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation still on course to back further easing in September

• Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September. 
• The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
• The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

• Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
• The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
• We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

PM Datanote: US PPI, June

Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.

Global Datanote: Exports, China, June 2025

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, June

In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, July

In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, June

In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, May

In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.

China+ Datanote: Caixin Services PMI, China, June

In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.

Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, June

In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens

Global Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, June

In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

• Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
• We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
• We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

17 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor Net trade in goods was a drag on Eurozone GDP growth in Q2

• The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
• Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
• We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.

17 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's surprise July cut to be followed by at least two more by year-end

• Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a  hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
• …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
• Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.

EZ Datanote: Trade, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: Tariff front-running no more. 

17 July 2025 LatAm Political Update Tariffs meet domestic political crosswinds

• Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
• Mexico —  Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
• Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs

17 July 2025 US Monitor PPI data show tariffs are inflationary, but only for goods

• PPI and CPI data collectively point to a 0.28% increase in the June core PCE deflator; tariffs mostly to blame.
• The core PPI was unchanged partly due to a plunge in prices charged for accommodation, which are volatile.
• Announcing a shadow fed Chair is a bigger risk than removing Mr. Powell immediately from his post.

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.

16 July 2025 US Monitor Tariff-related price hikes hit in June, with worse to come in July

The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...

...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.

CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.