Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
Thailand’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP has the interim government to thank
A sudden pop in ‘upstream core’ inflation in India to start the year
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
- The lower weight of food in India’s CPI basket forces us to cut our 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 4.1%.
- BI is likely to ‘keep calm and carry on’ holding rates in spite of the JCI plunge; the bleeding has stopped.
- The plunge to 3% GDP growth in the Philippines is effectively a hard landing that should ensure a cut.
- China’s policymakers have a sophisticated analysis of low inflation and are more explicitly aiming for reflation.
- But this is not yet translating into a change in short-term monetary policy thinking.
- Broad credit growth continued to slow in January, with policy-bank-backed stimulus still coming through.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland held at 0.1%, as imported deflation eased despite a stronger CHF…
- …Regardless, the SNB will not turn to negative rates and may intervene in FX markets instead.
- Decent Q4 GDP growth in the EZ was confirmed, but risks are tilted towards a downward revision.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
