Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Vacancies are one of the least accurate leading indicators of near-term job growth.
- Moreover, high-frequency data suggest that vacancies have stabilised...
- ...In part as small firms’ hiring intentions recover sharply from payroll-tax-hike-induced falls in April.
In one line: Lending standards still tight while demand for loans is rising.
- In one line:Autumn tax hikes are likely and will probably be backloaded.
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
- Mexico’s IGAE data show resilience, yet fading services and capex signal weak momentum into H2.
- Labour-market softness is deepening, with job creation stalling and real wage growth slowing further.
- Banxico is facing pressure to ease, but sticky core services inflation will constrain the pace of cuts.
- Indian core IP growth rose for a second straight month in June, to 1.7%, after its April plunge…
- …Refined petroleum product growth has recovered and should stabilise from here on out.
- Overall momentum is still deteriorating, however, with the electricity slump particularly worrying.
- Lending standards for firms were left unchanged in Q2, so they remain tight…
- ...Meanwhile, banks made it harder for households to borrow money, and rejection rates jumped…
- ...Q2’s bank lending survey is one for ECB doves, but only slightly; it won’t prompt a cut this week.
- We estimate that most of the fall in payrolls since October has been driven by payroll-tax hikes.
- 35K of the payroll drop likely reflects mismeasure-ment, as workers switch to self-employed status.
- Job growth should ease as firms complete their adjustment to the tax hikes.
- In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.
- BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
- Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
- A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
- The ECB will keep its powder dry this week, waiting for the September forecasts to decide its next move.
- The range of forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate next year has widened significantly.
We still see the deposit rate falling below 2% this year, setting up hikes by the end of 2026.
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
