Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Spanish GDP rose by a whopping 0.7% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, after 0.6% in Q1.
- Growth in the Iberian country will now likely slow, but not as much as we previously thought.
- The Spanish and Belgian data—released yesterday—are still consistent with 0.2% growth in the EZ in Q2.
- Credit is flowing to businesses and households, as economic uncertainty falls and borrowing costs drop.
- Saving flows temporarily spiked on cash ISA rumours, but the trend remains for lower household saving.
- Rising mortgage approvals suggest that the slowdown in the housing market is over.
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
- In one line: A ten-month low, as consumer sectors continue to broadly weaken.
EZ ECONOMY SHOWS RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF TARIFF THREATS…
- …SUB-2% SUMMER INFLATION WILL GET A SEPTEMBER RATE CUT OVER THE LINE
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
- The US-EU trade deal is a decent outcome for the EZ economy, but it will sting politically in Brussels.
- A relatively small 1% fall in Irish Q2 GDP points to upside risk to this week’s EZ GDP growth print.
- The probability of a September rate cut will increase this week if our July inflation forecasts prove right.
- We expect payrolls to be revised up to an 8K fall in June, and to drop by 7K in July.
- Vacancies leading indicators suggest the labour market is stabilising after-payroll-tax-hike disruption.
- We expect another solid private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain, at 0.4% month-to-month in June.
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
- In one line: Inflation stabilises as demand cools.
In one line: Temporary slowdown in M1, we hope, resilient IFO and ISTAT surveys.
In one line: Unemployment fears fall slightly, but saving intentions rise further.
Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
- Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
- …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
- The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
