Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falling uncertainty as President Trump dialled back his more ruinous tariffs boosted the PMI in May.
- The PMI signals 0.3% q/q GDP growth once we adjust for the survey’s typical overreaction to uncertainty.
- The MPC will welcome easing price pressures but needs another month of data to confirm the trend.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CHINA MORE RESPONSIVE TO FALTERING GROWTH THIS YEAR
- JAPAN’S STUMBLING GROWTH A REASON FOR BOJ CAUTION
- BOK SET TO RESUME RATE CUTS IN MAY
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: An abysmal start to Q2, but support from energy has been fading for a few months.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The marked weakness in airline passenger numbers partly reflects a dive in inbound tourism.
- Most other near-real time indicators of consumers’ spending remain relatively resilient.
- Existing home sales probably remained depressed in April; a meaningful recovery still is some way off.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Political and fiscal risks escalating
- Mexico — Stability tested by violence and reform
- Colombia — Mr. Petro’s reform agenda faces headwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
