Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Tariff revenues continue to underwhelm; the ending of the de minimis exemption has been uneventful.
- Accordingly, we are shaving 0.1pp off our forecast for the peak in core PCE inflation in December.
- Charts implying a dramatic rise in “different cell” imputation overstate the decline in data quality.
- October’s IPCA-15 shows headline inflation is back below 5% in Brazil, amid weaker demand…
- …A resilient BRL and falling fuel costs strengthen the case for a cautious BCB rate cut.
- Mr. Milei’s legislative win boosts Argentinian assets, limits governability risk and opens door to reform.
- China and the US held talks to settle a trade agreement framework before Presidents Xi and Trump meet.
- China’s industrial profits recovery broadened in September, partly due to base effects…
- …Equipment manufacturing drove profit gains; we remain cautiously optimistic on anti-involution policies.
- Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid…
- ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4.
- Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.
- Solid activity data suggest that fundamental demand in the housing market is holding firm…
- ...but house price inflation remains weak, because of April’s stamp-duty hike and worries about the Budget.
- So, we retain our call for house prices to rise by just 2.5% year-over-year in 2025.
Services inflation likely to remain in check.
Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
Tariffs still pushing goods inflation higher, but services inflation looks soft under the hood.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
In one line: Driven higher by pick up in German activity.
- In one line: Disinflation anchored by a stronger BRL.
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
- In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.
- Tariffs continue to lift core goods prices; passthrough is now about two-fifths complete…
- …But core services inflation remains in check and the weakening labor market will drag it lower.
- Higher goods inflation will be fleeting, while falling services inflation will enable the FOMC to ease.
- Mr. Kast has steady support in Chile, but fragmented politics and social tensions cloud reform prospects.
- Macro fundamentals remain sound, though capex weakness limits near-term growth momentum.
- Fiscal credibility and governance will determine the durability of Chile’s post-election market stability.
- India’s flash PMIs for October were a mixed bag, but it’s clear that the mid-2025 re-acceleration is over.
- Short-term leading indicators are still softening post-50% tariff, while long-term are average at best.
- The partial Q4 read chimes with our view that the economy is in the midst of a steep GDP slowdown.
- Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
- The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
- The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.
- The composite PMI for the Eurozone rose in October, as Germany’s index jumped...
- ...The PMI is consistent with better GDP growth in Q4 than Q3, which we think matched Q2’s 0.1% read.
- We still think higher growth and above-target inflation will keep the ECB on hold in December.
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
