Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
- In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.
The implied jump in services inflation makes little sense.
- In one line: Budget chaos hits job growth, but pay growth remains strong nonetheless so the MPC will have to be cautious.
- In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.
- In one line: Small fall in inflation expectations helps the case for a rate cut next week.
October's strength in control sales looks unlikely to last.
Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
In one line: Lackluster, but not alarming enough for a January easing.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
In one line: Down but still one for the ECB hawks.
- The NFIB survey’s hiring intentions index increased in November to its highest level since May 2023...
- ...But first estimates of private payrolls have undershot its implied level by 50K on average since Q1.
- The regional Fed surveys and the Census Bureau’s biweekly business survey show weaker hiring plans.
- Brazil — Polarised political outlook
- Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
- Peru — Stability but with political fragility
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
