In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
- German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
- EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed sharply in Q1, thanks to resilient exports and remittance inflows.
- Financial inflows weakened amid US trade tensions, global volatility, and domestic political uncertainty.
- The proposed US remittance tax and economic slow- down threaten to disrupt Mexico’s external stability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwanese retail sales outright contracted in April, due to a drop in discretionary spending…
- …Consumer confidence surveys are turning sour, which will be bad news for already weak spending.
- Malaysian inflation held steady in April; while low, it could be artificially depressed by price controls.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
