Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in June, as retail sales, real estate and autos output rebound.
- Our call points to quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, above the 0.1% forecast in the MPC’s May MPR.
- We think growth will run close to potential for the rest of 2025, giving the MPC little room for manoeuvre.
In one line: Investors give EU-US trade deal a thumbs down.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Ugly all round.
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- Swiss headline inflation rose in July, lifting our profile for the coming months…
- ...But downside risks are mounting, not least as we now see a recession in H2 from higher trade tariffs.
- We still expect the SNB to cut its key policy rate by 25bp in September, to -0.25%.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
In one line: Above consensus; September cut hangs in the balance.
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
- In one line: Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
In one line: A blow for ECB doves and September rate cut hopes.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
