Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April

• In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2025

A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, April

Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2025

• In one line: Boost­ed by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Chile, April, 2025

• In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q1

• In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datatnote: EZ Money Supply and Detailed Q1 GDP in Italy

In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Strong, but remember difference in base effects in the CPI and HICP. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, March

• In one line: Disregard completely; household spending is still weakening.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2025

In one line: Consumption growth will slow in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 May 2025

The April collapse in Philippine imports in context

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 June 2025 US Monitor Weaker consumers' spending and higher core inflation lie ahead

• Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
• ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
• Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.

Samuel TombsUS

2 June 2025 LatAm Monitor A strong start to 2025 for Brazil, but the outlook remains cautious

• A record agricultural harvest fuelled Brazil’s Q1 growth, but momentum is likely to slow.
• Services and capex held up, while industrial output shrank due to restrictive monetary policy.
• The job market’s resilience complicates the COPOM’s position, but conditions will deteriorate soon enough.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt

• GDP growth in India easily beat expectations in Q1, rising to a one-year high of 7.4%, thanks to capex …
• …But the investment outlook has only darkened since, and all the other Q1 details were weak.
•  We have nevertheless raised our downbeat 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 5.8%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 June 2025 China+ Monitor Tokyo inflation still elevated, but new rice-supply plan is promising

• Tokyo consumer inflation was flat in May, as fresh food inflation cooled but rice inflation soared.
• The new rice-reserve-release plan looks good though, and should lower inflation in the coming months.
• The BoJ is likely to stay put, amid sluggish growth and with little chance of a big upside trade surprise in H2

Duncan WrigleyChina+

2 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in April

• We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
• We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
• A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, April

Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Confidence, Italy, May 2025

In one line: Still consistent with slight slowdown in growth in Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone