Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, July 2025

In one line: Where is the light at the end of the tunnel?

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, June 2025

In one line: No boost from Airbus orders?

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision, August 2025

• In one line: Holding—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 August 2025

The RBI holds—understandably—in spite of the tariff let-down
An initial sign that the front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US is over
A decent start to Q3 for still-depressed Vietnamese retail sales
Transport deflation re-steepens in Vietnam; it's here to stay, for now
June leap in Thai food inflation reverses completely

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, July 2025

Probably a false alarm on services inflation.

7 August 2025 US Monitor Wealth effects are unlikely to give consumption much of a boost

• Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
• Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
• Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.

7 August 2025 LatAm Monitor External headwinds and weak growth weigh on LatAm currencies

• Brazilian Real —  Under strain as trade risk rises
• Mexican Peso —  Holding firm amid headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks

7 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's hands not tied in October, when we expect one final 25bp cut

• The RBI stood pat this month, commendabl­y in the wake of the tariff outcry; we still see one more cut.
• Vietnamese exports comfortably beat expectations in July, but US front-loading looks finally to be over.
• Taiwan inflation edged up, on higher education and entertainment costs, though this is likely temporary.

7 August 2025 China+ Monitor China's consumer and job-market sentiment near historic lows

• China’s consumer sentiment is near historic lows, weighed down by property- and job-market worries. 
• Employment sentiment is nearly as feeble as at the global financial crisis low point.
• More people expect broad inflation than deflation, which is largely confined to producer prices.

7 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ industry probably had a decent end to Q2; H2 will be tough

• Italian industrial output edged up in June, while German turnover figures point to a rise there too. 
• EZ industry fared well in Q2, a further correction in Irish production permitting. 
• EZ retail sales recorded a decent June and suggest goods spending supported GDP in Q2.

7 August 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: rising to 3.7% in July, peaking at 4.0% in September

• We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise. 
• CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
• We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, June 2025

In one line: Decent, and Q3 looks set to be good too.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, June 2025

In one line: Soaring as transport and refineries kick into gear

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 August 2025: Buoyant Caixin services PMI

In one line: Buoyant Caixin services PMI points to pockets of strength, such as tourism

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 August 2025

Big investment rebound drives Indonesia’s Q2 upside surprise
July should mark the low for Philippine inflation, but short-term downside risks dominate

6 August 2025 Global Monitor July payrolls open the door for Fed easing in September

• US - Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely
• EUROZONE - Our ECB and SNB rate cut calls now hang in the balance
• UK - Payroll falls should ease as tax hike drag begins to fade
• CHINA+ - China’s Politburo strikes confident tone about trade risks
• EM ASIA - Taiwan’s retail sales shrink in Q2; downside risk to our 6.4% GDP call
• LATAM - Brazil holds rates steady as tariffs cloud growth and inflation outlook

6 August 2025 US Monitor Why have tariff revenues undershot the White House's expectations?

• China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon. 
• Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
• Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.

6 August 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's recovery holds despite mining slump and fiscal challenges ahead

• Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
• The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
• Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.

6 August 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Two things stood out in Indonesia's Q2 surprise: one clear, one hidden

• Indonesia’s Q2 GDP defied expectations, with growth rising to 5.1% on the back of investment…
• …Consumption was stable, unsurprisingly, but our more realistic proxy series shows a Q2 jump.
• The Philippines’ soft July CPI print was no surprise to us, but should mark the low of the current cycle.

6 August 2025 Eurozone Monitor Italy and Spain starting Q3 on a solid footing, according to PMIs

• The EZ PMI was revised down, largely due to a downward revision to France’s already-weak index. 
• Spain’s and Italy’s composite PMIs are much higher than those of France and Germany. 
• French industrial production soared in June, but mainly on the back of a one-off in transport.