Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: GER/FRA Consumer Confidence and EZ Money Supply, Oct, Sep & Aug 2025

In one line: Stability in consumer confidence; robust details in EZ money supply. 

Global Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2025

In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over?

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q3 2025

In one line: No cut today; is the SNB easing cycle over? 

September 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

IGNORE INDIA’S ‘HOT’ Q2 GDP; Q3 SHAPING UP TO BE
MUCH MORE SOLID

• …FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA IS IN FLUX

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2025

• In one line: Little news, as underlying services inflation settling in the low-4%'s will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of this year. 

UK Datanote: UK MPC Decision and Minutes, September 2025

• In one line: A slightly more cautious MPC will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. 

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, July 2025

• In one line: House price inflation will remain weak as the Budget weighs on sentiment.

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, August 2025

• In one line:Ms. Reeves has a revenue problem.

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, August 2025

• In one line:Retail sales head for a solid Q3 and growth will likely be revised up.

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, September 2025

• In one line: Strong personal finances will help consumers keep spending.

PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, September, 2025

• In one line: Inflation steady, Banxico set to ease.

Global Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, September 2025

In one line: Korea’s September WDA exports plunge, led by US and China.

Global Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, September 2025

In one line: BoJ stays put on rates in September, starts ETFs and J-REITs offloading plan

Global Datanote: LPR, China, September 2025

In one line: China’s commercial banks keep LPR steady in September; PBoC wary of a buoyant equity market

China+ Datanote: LPR, China, September

In one line: China’s commercial banks keep LPR steady in September; PBoC wary of a buoyant equity market

China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, September

In one line: Korea’s September WDA exports plunge, led by US and China.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, September

In one line: BoJ stays put on rates in September, starts ETFs and J-REITs offloading plan

26 September 2025 US Monitor Early estimates of GDP are often wayward; payrolls are a better guide

• We are raising our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5%, from 2.0%, after August’s advance indicators...
• ...But advance GDP estimates missed the last three major downturns; payrolls are a better gauge.
• Residual seasonality depresses continuing claims in September; the labor market is still weakening.

26 September 2025 LatAm Monitor Disinflation in Brazil to resume soon; Banxico maintains its cautious course

• Brazil’s inflation is rising modestly in September, reinforcing BCB’s cautious stance.
• BCB’s report highlighted sticky services inflation, a positive output gap, and delayed rate normalisation.
• Banxico continues its cautious easing as inflation softens, but fragile growth and external risks persist. 

26 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese retail sales finally turn expansionary after four months

• Taiwan's retail sales growth finally rebounded, to +0.4% in August, after months of constant falls.
• This was supported by a milder drop in auto sales, which could recover if a US trade deal is agreed.
• All told, still-weak consumption reflects flat wages,a soft property market and slumping tourism.