In one line: All set for doves to take charge of ECB policy over the summer.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
- …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
- Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ sovereigns have been largely spared in the global bond-market rout, but French bonds remain fragile.
- Foreigners own more than half of government bonds in France, with Japanese savings a key swing factor.
- We think Japan owns around €165B-worth of French government bonds, or 5% of French GDP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Below zero; brace for a 50bp cut from the SNB.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Weaker consumers’ spending and higher core inflation lie ahead
- EUROZONE - Soft inflation data signal dovish ECB and SNB meetings in June
- UK - Forecast review: Stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut
- CHINA+ - China’s residential market enjoying only a modest boost
- EM ASIA - India’s investment-led Q1 leap is unreliable; consumers still in doubt
- LATAM - Solid start for Chile’s Q2 growth; subdued inflation pressures in Peru
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in both the EZ and Switzerland fell below the respective central-bank targets in May.
- In the EZ, the decline solidifies the need for a rate cut this month, and we look for another one in Q3.
- In Switzerland, deflation is likely to become a mainstay, so brace for a 50bp rate cut from the SNB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
- We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
In one line: Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Recovery maintaining a solid pace, but external headwinds still loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Falling saving and more borrowing supporting consumption should keep GDP growth ticking along despite a drag from investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing is past the worst as tariff uncertainty fades.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
