- In one line: DMP raises the chance of an August cut, but the survey will likely recover further in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Construction PMI should improve only slowly as sentiment remains weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling interest rates and a healthy consumer will support car registrations.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth has been steady, if unspectacular, once we account for the PMI’s excess sensitivity to uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: PMI still paints a picture of underlying weakness in construction.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Surprisingly strong, but the details are volatile.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
- Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
- Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
Samuel TombsUS
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- Capex and consumption have weakened in Mexico as high rates and trade tensions dampen confidence.
- Construction and machinery output have slumped, with tight policy and little appetite for long-term capex.
- Banxico’s rate cuts and the USMCA revision will bring limited relief given the persistent structural challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
- We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
- Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0%, as expected, but Ms. Lagarde signalled this is it.
- We still see a final 25bp cut, to 1.75%—now in September—but we’re less certain than before.
- The ECB’s new forecasts are very dovish on inflation and likely will have to be revised up in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Japan's core CPI surprise points to continued squeeze on real wages
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: BoK cuts to 2.50% on weaker growth outlook amid tariff war impact
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Golden Week boosts May's services activity in China, but overall non-manufacturing weighed down by weak resi-construction
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China's manufacturing activity shrinks at a slower pace in May due to US tariff reprieve
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
