Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: June’s increase will more than reverse in July.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June & ECB Inflation Expectations, EZ, May 2025

In one line: German unemployment rate won’t hold steady for much longer; inflation expectations likely to continue to fall.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: PMI, Switzerland, June 2025

In one line: Pointing to downside risks for GDP in Q2.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, June

• In one line: Expect a further rise in food inflation in the July report.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, May

• In one line: Export growth probably will buckle again in Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, June

• In one line: Post-export-front-loading clouds continue to darken.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 July 2025

Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, June

In one line: Caixin PMI concurs with official index in showing manufacturing activity rebound

Duncan WrigleyGlobal

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 July 2025: China's Caixin manufacturing PMI also rises

China's Caixin PMI, Korea's PMI and Japan's Tankan point to manufacturers' measured relief at easing trade tensions

Duncan WrigleyChina+

June 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL RISK…

• …FORCING SOME CENTRAL BANKS TO MOVE TO THE SIDELINES

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: In line with our call for slightly softer German inflation in June. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, May 2025

In one line: EZ money and credit data still positive on economic outlook.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Headline absurdity continues.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 July 2025 US Monitor Expect soft June payrolls, and yet another set of downward revisions

• The abundance of weak surveys points to a 100K first estimate for June payrolls.
• Downward revisions to estimated payrolls in April and May also are likely.
• Scraps of evidence suggest late responses from struggling small businesses explains the pattern.

Samuel TombsUS

1 July 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's rate cuts delayed as fiscal slippage raises inflation risks

• Deep BanRep Board divisions and sticky inflation expectations are delaying further rate cuts.
• Rising fiscal deficits and political noise are under- mining policy credibility and investor confidence.
• Stronger growth gives limited relief as inflation risks and external pressures continue to build.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai consumption remains sluggish, with large headwinds intensifying

• Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
• …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
• Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia