Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.
- In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.
- In one line: Activity is stabilizing at the margin, but the industrial sector remains a clear drag.
- Tech capex is booming, but not all of this spending is AI-related, and much is spent on imports.
- We think the direct boost to GDP growth from AI investment likely is running at only around 0.2pp.
- Consumers’ spending and non-tech investment are weak, and are in need of more policy support.
- BanRep’s unanimous hold risks misinterpretation as inflation rises; the policy stance is behind the curve.
- Rising expectations and resilient demand expose insufficient tightening, reinforcing the need for more.
- Fiscal slippage and market repricing tighten conditions independently, increasing pressure ahead.
- Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
- …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
- The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.
- China’s manufacturing PMIs held up well in April, despite the disruption from the war in the Middle East.
- This resilience should continue in the near term, though exports are likely to slow as global demand fades.
- The weak construction PMI likely reflects bad weather; the infrastructure investment rebound should continue.
- Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
- German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
- Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.
- The activity data since our last forecast review have been solid, implying little damage from the Iran war...
- ...So firms’ pricing pressure looks strong to us, and the soft data point to a quick passthrough of higher costs.
- We now look for two 25bp hikes to Bank Rate this year, with three cuts to come across 2027 and 2028.
In one line: Prices index likely sending a false alarm.
Prices index likely sending a false alarm.
- In one line: Buoyed by rocketing chip exports
- In one line: Subdued, thanks to expanded childcare subsidies
In one line: Tokyo inflation subdued thanks to expanded childcare subsidies;
Korean exports buoyed by robust chip sales
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
- In one line: BanRep pauses, but credibility questions linger.
OIL SHOCK FEEDS INTO INFLATION, DELAYING EASING CYCLES
- DISINFLATION STALLS, CENTRAL BANKS TURN MORE CAUTIOUS
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.
