Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2025

In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 April 2025: China's response to US tariff hike

China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike; 
Caixin services activity rises

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, March

ADP distracts more than it informs.

4 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff shock

• The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
• We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
• The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

4 April 2025 LatAm Monitor LatAm emerges as a modest trade hedge amid US tariff shock

• USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
• The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
• Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.

4 April 2025 China+ Monitor China has options, albeit limited, to counter the steep US tariff hike

• China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
• …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
• Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.

4 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor US tariff hammer falls; what next in the EZ and Switzerland?

• Look through the noise to see a relatively modest US tariff package for the EU, all things considered. 
• An ECB rate cut later this month is now fully priced in, but we still think the Bank will hold fire. 
• The SNB can hold off from further rate cuts for now, despite the likely hit to growth from the US tariff hike.

4 April 2025 UK Monitor Initial small hit to growth just the start of the tariff tango

• We assume a 10% tariff on UK goods exports to the US lowers 2025 UK GDP growth by 0.2pp.
• But strengthening growth in services—immune from tariffs—shows that UK growth can hold up.
• Strong domestic price pressures will keep the MPC cautious; we still expect two more rate cuts this year.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, February, 2025

• In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, March

• In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 April 2025

The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March 2025

• In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, March 2025

• In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, February, 2025

• In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.

PM Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, February, 2025

• In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2025

In one line:  A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks.