Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
- The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
- Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
- It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.
- We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment.
- Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock.
- Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
In one line: GDP growth pick up in Q1 will prove short-lived as trade uncertainty hits.
In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Agricultural rebound masks broad-based weakness.
- In one line: Consumption resilient amid headwinds, but confidence wavers as external risks build.
In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call.
In one line: HICP coming in hot.
- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.
Manufacturing activity bashed by tariff war
