Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.
- In one line: BCRP resumes easing, citing stable inflation.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
- …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
- It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.
- Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
- …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
- Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations, rising by 30% year-over-year in April; front-loading continues...
- ...It’s unclear when this will stop, but a surge in the value of the T WD is a new headwind.
- Inflation moderated to 2.0% in April, from 2.3% in March, but it’s still too soon to celebrate.
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
