Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: House prices rebound in May, but the stamp-duty-unwind has more room to run.
- We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
- ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
- Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.
- Mining and services offset weak industrial output in Chile, providing a solid base for Q2 growth.
- Business sentiment improved slightly but remains fragile, with construction still the weakest link.
- Peru’s inflation is well under control, led by cheaper food and fuel prices; the BCRP is likely to cut soon.
- The dramatic collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in April was down in large part to seasonal noise…
- …Underlying the emerging down-shift are struggling exports and a welcome recovery in imports.
- We have cut our 2025 CPI forecast to 1.5%, in view of the soft May data and the coming utilities relief.
- Both candidates in the presidential election have committed to a KRW30T fiscal plan to boost the economy.
- May’s export growth was not as weak as it appeared; WDA monthly and annual growth were positive.
- Still, tariff and trade-policy uncertainty will continue to weigh on Korea’s GDP growth in 2025.
- The 0.3% increase in Italian GDP in Q1 was driven by both domestic demand and net trade.
- In Switzerland, it was just domestic demand that pushed GDP up by a whopping 0.8% on the quarter.
- Growth is now slowing in both economies, though risks to our H2 calls are likely to the upside.
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
TRADE TRUCE BRINGS LATAM MODEST GAINS…
- …BUT DOMESTIC FRAGILITIES UNDERMINE GROWTH PROSPECTS
In one line: Switzerland was on a tear before the tariff shock; surveys point to slower growth in Q2.
Korean PMI shows domestic demand tanking, but sentiment is improving thanks to tariff war pause
- In one line: Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner.
- In one line: A partially welcome collapse in the surplus.
A partially welcome collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus
Near-zero inflation is once again around the corner
Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
- In one line: Boosted by agriculture and capex, but momentum set to fade.
- In one line: Retail softens in April, but growth momentum is holding up.
- In one line: Boosted by investment, which can’t be relied upon post-“Liberation Day”.
In one line: Upturn in money supply continues; Italian GDP on a solid footing in Q1.
