Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
In one line: Decline in December was not as bad as in the rest of the big four.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- Deflation in EZ and German energy producer prices points to a rebound in energy-intensive industry.
- The leap in the EZ manufacturing input price PMI signals a rebound in core EZ PPI inflation.
- EZ industrial production likely suffered its steepest monthly fall in more than two years in December.
- Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
- …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
- We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
- US - January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus
- EUROZONE - ECB sets out the—unlikely, in our view—conditions for a rate cut
- UK - CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast
- CHINA+ - PM Takaichi’s election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s ‘hot’ Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one
- LATAM - Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December
- December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4.
- Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
- Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.
- Thailand’s Bhumjaithai party surprised with a clear win, smoothing A nutin’s path to becoming PM…
- …The People’s Party’s loss implies a bigger chance of internal stability and less risk of populist policy.
- We see no reason to change our growth outlook though, as structural headwinds will still dominate.
- China’s consumer inflation fell sharply due to holiday effects, but monthly momentum has strengthened.
- Producer deflation eased unevenly, driven mostly by non-ferrous metals and ‘experience’-related industries.
- The reflation process still has a long way to go and is likely to be choppy, especially for the PPI.
- We retain a steepening bias in our forecast for short-term interest rates, less so in Bunds.
- The trend is your friend in EZ 10-year yield spreads, and we think it will remain so this year.
- Germany’s MDAX equity index will outperform further this year as the domestic economy recovers.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.1% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- Education, airfares and energy prices will all contribute to the inflation slowdown at the start of the year.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel prices mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION JUMPS IN NOVEMBER...
- ...AND BUYER DEMAND HAS FURTHER TO IMPROVE IN 2026
