Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- Soft inflation data and the prospect of greater fiscal headroom mean we cut our gilt-yield forecasts.
- We now expect the two-year gilt yield to end the year at 3.80%, and the 10-year at 4.55%.
- All of the good news is priced into yields, increasing the risk of a post-Budget market disappointment.
Cost-push pressures are pushing up Malaysian inflation
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
- In one line:Growth runs close to potential, limiting the emergence of spare capacity.
- In one line:Borrowing overshoot shrinks but the Chancellor still has to raise taxes or cut spending by at least £25B.
- In one line: A minor setback; positive momentum still rebuilding.
- The year-to-date change in Homebase’s measure of employment is almost identical to last year...
- ...But this also was true in the summer, when payrolls slowed decisively; we track other indicators instead.
- Canada CPI data point to risk of a big increase in US food at home prices in September.
- BI surprised again, but with a rate hold this time; we’re sticking to our end-2025 call of 4.50%.
- Malaysian inflation increased again, the third rise since the expansion of the sales and services tax.
- India’s full core IP data for Q3 show a solid bounce, but the GDP signal remains subdued.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- The EZ general government budget deficit held steady in Q2, as revenue and expenditure both rose.
- It is likely growing now, as Germany has started to spend more earnestly, and will widen again next year.
- The EZ deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP this year, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, from 3.1% in 2024.
- Plenty of small caveats suggest we treat the downside inflation surprise with a little caution…
- ...But the dovish news was too widespread to ignore, so we cut our forecasts and see a December rate cut.
- We still think the MPC will skip a November cut, with inflation nearly double its target.
- US - September CPI to rise sharply, but by less than markets are pricing in
- EUROZONE - EZ GDP likely grew by 0.1% over the quarter in Q3, as in Q2
- UK - Another big Budget to add ‘belt and braces’ to fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - What else do we expect in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?
- EM ASIA -Malaysia’s Q3 GDP surprisingly rises, thanks to extractives
- LATAM - Slight momentum in Brazil’s economy, but the outlook is fragile
- The regional Fed and PMI surveys are no better at forecasting GDP than just extrapolating the trend.
- Durables goods spending by consumers is reasonably well signalled by the UoM confidence survey.
- Airline passenger and hotel occupancy data are useful for forecasting that segment of spending only.
- President Petro’s confrontation with Washington risks undoing decades of cooperation and stability.
- Economic activity is weakening as the construction and service sectors lose growth momentum.
- Fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty and political noise threaten the fragile recovery.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- The weakening dollar means that DXY is no longer overshooting its long-term link with Treasury yields.
- ...But further fiscal easing and politicization of the Fed are key downside risks for the dollar in 2026.
- Housing inflation likely has further to fall, given the renewed drop in rental growth in recent months.
- Argentina has secured US support as elections near, but political uncertainty is keeping markets on edge.
- The swap deal buys time, yet weak demand and fiscal pressures are weighing on the outlook.
- Peru’s economy is maintaining solid growth despite political instability and pre-election uncertainty.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
