In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's services business activity grow faster in June, but slowing input cost increase bode ill for wage growth
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s current account balance holds up in Q1, but deterioration likely in Q2.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s GDP shrinks for the first time in a year, reinforcing the BoJ's wait-and-see stance.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's core inflation surprised on the upside, but unlikely to sway BoJ into hiking mode
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Mr. Powell refrained from providing lawmakers with triggers and timings for the intended policy easing in H2...
- ...But 2024’s small upside unemployment surprise drove a rapid pivot; expect a repeat, despite the tariffs.
- GDPNow’s 3.4% projection for Q2 growth looks about right; underlying momentum is about half that figure.
Samuel TombsUS
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: At a one-year high, but still consistent with slower growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock
- EUROZONE - SNB shies away from negative rates for now; EZ PMI holds steady
- UK - Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely
- CHINA+ - Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes
- EM ASIA - BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts
- LATAM - COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Homebase data point to a mere 100K rise in June payrolls; Conference Board data point to even worse.
- No other reliable indicators of payroll growth are due to be released, so we likely will maintain our 100K forecast.
- The April surge in new home sales looks very fishy: we expect a slump in May.
Samuel TombsUS
- The benign inflation report supports a 50bp cut, but a divided Banxico will likely slow the easing pace in H2.
- Services inflation is sticky; housing, wage and food costs are delaying disinflation despite a MXN rebound.
- Private demand and capex lead growth in Argentina, but external imbalances and fiscal risks remain high.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s retail sales fell for a second straight month, because of a slump in vehicle sales...
- ...Reports suggest consumers are holding off purchases, hoping for a reduction in import tariffs.
- Malaysian inflation fell to its lowest in 51 months, due to a decline in services inflation.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s June headline flash manufacturing index was lifted by output, but demand remained subdued.
- Cost pressures are easing only slowly, with global oil prices a key risk.
- The service sector continues to be bolstered by tourism, notably surging Chinese visitor numbers.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet…
- ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September.
- The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
