Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The trend in payrolls is unlikely to improve in Q1; catch-up growth in healthcare jobs is now over...
- ...And December’s jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls looks set to unwind, just like a year ago.
- The sharp rise in involuntary part-time working is a red flag, signaling that layoffs will pick up in Q1.
- Disinflation is broadening in Brazil, as tradables cool and currency strength reinforces policy credibility…
- …The COPOM will begin a cautious easing cycle; fiscal risks and labour tightness will slow the pace of cuts.
- Industrial output is improving sequentially in Mexico, but weak exports and the USMCA review are threats.
- Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
- …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
- Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.
- China’s PPI improved on the back of a better supply-demand balance and rising non-ferrous metal prices.
- December’s CPI pick-up was due to transient factors such as food, offset by falling energy prices.
- Sustained reflation momentum will be difficult to maintain as economic fundamentals remain weak.
- A jump in German manufacturing points to upside risk to Q4 GDP, but we still see a modest 0.2% rise.
- We’re lifting our Q4 growth forecast in France, by 0.2pp to 0.1%, due to strength in our nowcast model.
- Evidence of robust Q4 GDP in France and Germany will be reassuring news for the ECB.
- Firms are putting the Budget circus behind them, despite a disappointing headline PMI.
- Surveys of job growth improved in December, and redundancies dropped after a post-Budget surge.
- The DMP shows wage growth and inflation stuck well above target-consistent rates.
HOUSE PRICE INFLATION REMAINED MUTED IN OCTOBER...
- ...BUT ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP OVER THE COURSE OF 2026
In one line: China’s FX reserves rise on currency valuation gains as dollar weakens in December
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMIs edges back into expansion, but sustainability remains in question
In one line: China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rebound, but momentum looks fragile
In one line: Modestly hawkish as selling prices rise and unemployment dips.
In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB
In one line: December inflation confirms that 2026 likely will be an uneventful year for the SNB.
In one line: December inflation confirms that 2026 likely will be an uneventful year for the SNB.
In one line: Sizzling, but at odds with weakening surveys.
In one line: BoJ won't be fazed by slowing headline wage growth, as regular pay growth is relatively steady
Still an unreliable guide to services spending.
- Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
- ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
- The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.
- Sticky core inflation and narrowing policy leeway push Banxico to pause before cautious easing can resume…
- …Temporary fiscal and wage shocks will lift near-term inflation, but disinflation will maintain its easing bias.
- Disinflation is holding in Chile as policy nears neutral and the easing cycle approaches its end.
- Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates.
- German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks.
- Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.
