Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

Samuel TombsUS

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, June 2025

In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, May

In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, June

In one line: Stable, but weak.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line: A decent start to Q2.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

June 2025 - China+ Chartbook

- CHINA’S FLAGGING GROWTH TO PROMPT POLICY TWEAKS
- BOJ OPTS FOR PRAGMATIC MIDDLE PATH ON BOND-BUYING
- BOK LIKELY TO EASE, DESPITE CURRENCY WORRY

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

23 June 2025 US Monitor Consumption looks vulnerable to the looming real-income shock

Real income growth has already slowed significantly, and will grind to a halt as tariffs boost consumer prices.
Spending growth likely will soften too; households’ balance sheets are less supportive than post-Covid.
We expect growth in consumers’ spending to slow just 1% by Q4, down from nearly 3% in Q1.

Samuel TombsUS

23 June 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM surprises with a final hike and signals a prolonged pause

The COPOM defied consensus, raising the Selic to 15.00%, and signalled a hawkish extended pause.
Persistent inflation and deanchored expectations are keeping Brazil’s policy tight despite activity slowing.
Chile’s BCCh paused again; easing will depend on data amid resilient growth and global headwinds.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapsing commodity demand weighs on Malaysian exports

Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
…Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's inflation still elevated, largely due to food inflation

Japan’s headline national consumer inflation inched down in May, with energy inflation cooling.
The new rice distribution system is star ting to yield results, but rice prices are still double the target range.
The BoJ is likely to sit tight on interest rates this year, given the impact of higher US tariffs.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

23 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: decent June surveys, and a rug-pull in Bunds?

A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely

Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK