Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

22 April 2025 China+ Monitor China's strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures

President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 April 2025 Eurozone Monitor A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB

The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 April 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: tariffs hang over a previously solid outlook

Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
…But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 April 2025 US Monitor The DOGE bark is proving far worse than its bite

The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
…So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims / Housing Starts

No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April

Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March

Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March

Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, April 2025

In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 April 2025 US Monitor Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker

Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US