- China’s Politburo meeting on Friday focused on growth and consumption, rather than tariffs directly.
- US doves want China to rebalance in favour of consumption, but no sign of talks being in the offing.
- Tokyo inflation jumped in April, due to a statistical quirk; the BoJ should stand pat on Thursday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Lifted by tariff front-running, still pointing to downside risks to growth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Slowing, not careering towards recession.
Samuel TombsUS
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Retail momentum softens in February after January’s rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Don’t show Donald Trump the trade charts; Construction down but still defied surveys in Q1
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Small banks have run down their Treasury holdings since 2023, especially long bonds.
- The biggest risk for small banks is further tariff escalation, which would hit CRE valuations and lift yields.
- A tariff-driven bounce in business investment in Q1 will give way to a slump in Q2 and Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico’s surprise inflation rebound in early April reflects temporary shocks…
- …Primarily the lagged effect of MXN depreciation, rather than a fundamental shift in the inflation trend.
- Retail sales point to a broader slowdown in domestic demand, despite a better-than-expected Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s March retail sales rose by 0.4% year-over-year, though our seasonal adjustment erases this…
- …We see worrying signs in motor vehicle, textiles, and fuel sales, the three largest components.
- This all points to a weak Q1 private consumption print, ahead of next Wednesday’s GDP release.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Most near-real-time consumers’ spending indicators suggest it is holding up well in April.
- The trade war also hasn’t hit job postings, while Google searches for ‘unemployment’ are down.
- Leading indicators on production, meanwhile, reflect greater activity, boosted by tariff front-running.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
