- Volatility at the long end of the gilt curve will fail to deter the MPC from continuing QT from October.
- The level of reserves in the system is elevated, and rate-setters are keen to dispose of APF assets.
- We expect the BoE to reduce the pace of QT only modestly in 2025/26, to £80B per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
ACTIVITY UNWINDING AS STAMP-DUTY COSTS RISE...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICES TO GAIN 4% IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market slowdown will be temporary according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Keeping ‘gradual’ guidance disappointed market expectations, but the MPC are on track for a couple more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Dovish DMP but the survey was run in the eye of the storm, business responses would likely be different now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: BCRP resumes easing, citing stable inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
- …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
- Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations, rising by 30% year-over-year in April; front-loading continues...
- ...It’s unclear when this will stop, but a surge in the value of the T WD is a new headwind.
- Inflation moderated to 2.0% in April, from 2.3% in March, but it’s still too soon to celebrate.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- China reportedly plans to improve its housing model by banning pre-sale housing.
- The move would allow the authorities to control the supply of housing better, stabilising prices.
- China’s foreign reserves rose on the back of a bigger revaluation effect, thanks to the weaker USD in April.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC turned more dovish last week, just not as dramatically as the market expected.
- The US–UK trade deal will have a small impact on trade flows but could relieve some uncertainty.
- Strong GDP growth and upward payroll revisions should maintain the sense of monetary caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
