Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil — Polarised political outlook
- Colombia — Markets brace for next year's election
- Peru — Stability but with political fragility
- BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
- …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
- The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.
- EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up.
- It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today.
- Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4.
In one line: Q4 will still be better than Q3.
In one line: Reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
Japan's flash PMIs find reviving manufacturing activity but mounting cost pressures
An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025
Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA
- …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING
- US - Lackluster payrolls, but not alarming enough for a January easing
- EUROZONE - ECB preview: EZ policy rates to stay on hold all the way until 2027
- UK - CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%
- CHINA+ - China’s domestic demand still in the slow lane as policy boost fades
- EM ASIA - “End” to BSP’s easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%
- LATAM - Kast’s mandate signals Chile’s return to discipline, and market confidence
- Private payrolls are no longer slowing and the jump in unemployment was mostly due to the shutdown.
- Unemployment ex-temporary layoffs, however, is above its pre-Covid norm, and wider slack is building.
- Some indicators of hiring indicators have improved recently, but layoff plans also have picked up.
- Broad-based weakness in industry and services offsets agricultural strength in Brazil…
- …Fiscal support is cushioning the slowdown; COPOM patience pushes back easing expectations to late Q1.
- Policy remains near neutral in Peru, as inflation is still anchored and growth is running close to potential.
- India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
- …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
- A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.
- The BoJ’s regional branches report steady wage-hike expectations for 2026, except at small firms.
- Japan’s December flash PMIs see manufacturing activity reviving but cost pressures mounting.
- The Q4 Tankan finds severe labour shortages, but these have yet to spur an uptick in broad wage growth.
- The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3.
- The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market…
- ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
