Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
In one line: Decline in December was not as bad as in the rest of the big four.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
- Deflation in EZ and German energy producer prices points to a rebound in energy-intensive industry.
- The leap in the EZ manufacturing input price PMI signals a rebound in core EZ PPI inflation.
- EZ industrial production likely suffered its steepest monthly fall in more than two years in December.
- Malaysian retail sales remain static, in terms of seasonally adjusted volumes…
- …We think consumption will continue to support growth, but consumer confidence seems gloomy
- We see warning signs the recovery in Indonesian consumption risks being nipped in the bud.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
- US - January CPI likely to undershoot the consensus
- EUROZONE - ECB sets out the—unlikely, in our view—conditions for a rate cut
- UK - CPI weight changes fractionally raise our inflation forecast
- CHINA+ - PM Takaichi’s election gamble paid off, but market jitters continue
- EM ASIA - Indonesia’s ‘hot’ Q4 GDP print welcome in more ways than one
- LATAM - Banxico pauses and eyes easing in Q2; Chile inflation stays in check
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
- In one line: Disinflation on track despite January uptick.
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
Indonesian retail sales took a—likely temporary—breather at the end of 2025
Price effects flatter Malaysian retail sales growth in December
