Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, December 2025

• In one line: Look past the dissapointing headline, because forward-looking balances improved and price pressures strengthened.

8 January 2026 US Monitor JOLTS data unable to shine light on the biggest labor market questions

• JOLTS hiring less separations ought to provide a useful cross-check on payrolls, but the track record is poor.
• Small business openings remain low, but they lag the NFIB hiring index too much to refute its recent pick-up.
• The inclusion of retailers means the ISM services survey provides a useful steer on tariff-driven inflation.

8 January 2026 LatAm Monitor LatAm currencies diverge as external shocks meet rising domestic risks

• Brazilian Real — Flows and shifting rate bets
• Mexican Peso — Range-bound after strong December
• Colombian Peso — Wage shock and geopolitics weigh

8 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor No need to rethink our February BSP cut call after hot December CP

• The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
• Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
• Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.

8 January 2026 China+ Monitor China's foreign reserves on a rising trend, despite trade frictions

• China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
• The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
• Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.

8 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor December inflation sets up a tense Q1 for the ECB

• EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected… 
• …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1. 
• German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.

8 January 2026 UK Monitor CPI Preview 1: ticking up to 3.3% as tobacco duty rises

• We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
• A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
• Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, December 2025

In one line: Still very dovish. 

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 January 2026

GDP growth in Vietnam surprisingly holds steady above 8%
A robust end to the year for Vietnamese exports, but momentum continues to fade
December bump salvages Vietnamese real retail sales in Q4
Rising food inflation in Vietnam cushions what could have been a bigger December deceleration
Encouraging, but Philippine sales are still broadly struggling
Philippine food inflation is finally reviving

7 January 2026 Global Monitor Soft labour market data to keep the pressure on the Fed to ease in March

• US - December labor market data to maintain pressure on FOMC to ease
• EUROZONE - ECB doves get a late Christmas gift in Germany’s December HICP
• UK - Forecast review: five questions for the New Year
• CHINA+ - China’s services firms optimistic despite cooling in demand
• EM ASIA - Singapore GDP ends 2025 on a high, but we expect this to fade
• LATAM - Security, geopolitics and elections redefine LatAm’s political outlook

7 January 2026 US Monitor Core CPI likely jumped in December as data collection issues unwound

• We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
• Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
• ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.

7 January 2026 LatAm Monitor Activity rebounds in Mexico in Q4 but is limited by headwinds

• October’s activity rebound reduces recession risk in Mexico, but sectoral momentum remains uneven.
• Services are cushioning any weakness, with industry, investment and external demand capping growth
• USMCA uncertainty, soft remittances and policy noise will keep Mexico’s growth below potential this year.

7 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Reasons to believe Vietnam's Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak

• GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
• …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
• Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.

7 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB doves get a late Christmas gift in Germany's December HICP

• Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
• Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
• The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.

7 January 2026 UK Monitor. Look past the disappointing PMI headline, new orders improved

• Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
• The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
• Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, December 2025

• In one line: Still struggling for momentum.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, December 2025

Still struggling for momentum.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, November 2025

• In one line: The money and credit data for November show a solid footing for activity in 2026.

6 January 2026 US Monitor Tariff revenues are starting to fall, further improving the CPI outlook

• Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs. 
• Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
• Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. 

6 January 2026 LatAm Monitor Security, geopolitics and elections redefine LatAm's political outlook

• US intervention in Venezuela raises regional tensions and reshapes political debate ahead of key elections.
• Rising crime and security issues push voters towards hard-line, market-friendly candidates.
• Chile’s election and upcoming Andean races signal a broader shift in LatAm’s political cycle.