Pantheon Publications

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 January 2026: China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rebound, but momentum looks fragile

In one line: China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rebound, but momentum looks fragile

EZ Datanote: ESI and Unemployment, Eurozone, Dec/Nov 2025

In one line: Modestly hawkish as selling prices rise and unemployment dips.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, November 2025

In one line: Still high, but not a decisive hawkish signal for the ECB

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Sizzling, but at odds with weakening surveys.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8 January 2026: Wage growth falls, but regular pay steady

In one line: BoJ won't be fazed by slowing headline wage growth, as regular pay growth is relatively steady

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, December 2025

Still an unreliable guide to services spending.

9 January 2026 US Monitor Do flat jobless claims signal the unemployment rate is stabilizing?

• Unadjusted initial and continuing jobless claims are almost unchanged from a year ago...
• ...But this is partly due to low seasonal hiring; claims also miss rising youth and long-term unemployment.
• The Q3 productivity jump merely returns it to trend; tariffs and immigration curbs will limit growth in 2026.

9 January 2026 LatAm Monitor Inflation contained in Mexico and Chile, but policymakers still cautious

• Sticky core inflation and narrowing policy leeway push Banxico to pause before cautious easing can resume…
• …Temporary fiscal and wage shocks will lift near-term inflation, but disinflation will maintain its easing bias.
• Disinflation is holding in Chile as policy nears neutral and the easing cycle approaches its end.

9 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Deflation no longer on the cards in Switzerland, nor negative rates

• Swiss CPI in December eliminates the risk of deflation, as well as questions about negative rates. 
• German factory orders rose strongly midway through Q4, but surveys signal downside risks. 
• Falling unemployment and rising selling prices in the ESI tilt hawkish after dovish December inflation data.

9 January 2026 UK Monitor GDP likely rose in November despite pre-Budget uncertainty

• Manufacturing output likely rose in November as auto production recovered after the JLR cyber attack.
• Leading indicators suggest that consumer-facing services were spared the worst of pre-Budget worries.
• Output growth in Q4 2025 will likely run close to the MPC’s forecast and the steer from the PMI.

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, December 2025

• In one line: Discounting and post-Budget relief boost autos sales in December, but the trend remains upwards.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, December 2025

• In one line: Mild.

EZ Datanote: EZ Construction PMIs & German Unemployment, December 2025

In one line: A modest improvement in EZ construction; no change in Germany’s labour market.   

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Dovish!

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Poor, but still consistent with slightly better growth in Q4.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 January 2026

Reviving food inflation should soon return Thai CPI to the black