Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The PBoC yesterday signalled room for policy rate and RRR cuts, while easing via structural policy tools.
- We expect only a token 10bp policy rate cut this year, likely timed to counter shocks, such as to trade policy.
- Private-sector credit growth remained sluggish in December; quasi-fiscal policy is still gaining traction.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
- GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
- The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
- Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.
More confirmation that food price pressures are coming back in India
In one line: Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Muted rebound in core goods prices suggests tariff pass-through is slowing.
Increasingly untrustworthy.
- US - December CPI suggests tariff pass-through is slowing
- EUROZONE - With friends like this…; how can the EU react as Trump eyes Greenland?
- UK - GDP likely rose in November despite pre-Budget uncertainty
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation firms in December, but sustained reflation still tricky
- EM ASIA - Reasons to believe Vietnam’s Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation hits target range; Mexico’s industry finds its footing
- Consumers’ spending probably slowed in Q4, despite November’s respectable rise in retail sales.
- We look for spending growth of 1½-to-2%, far weaker than the 3.5% leap in Q3.
- The latest PPI data show retailers are continuing to shield consumers from tariff-driven cost increases.
- Brazil — Retesting records as rate-cut bets return
- Mexico — Hitting records on positive sectoral news
- Colombia — Firm flows, and election in focus
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- China’s successful diversification kept its exports afloat in 2025, with the amount exported reaching USD3.77T.
- The record trade surplus masks exceptionally weak imports, which reflect feeble domestic demand.
- China’s export strategy will face rising challenges in 2026 as non-US trade protectionism escalates.
- EZ house prices are rising strongly, but they’re driven by positive outliers in the smaller economies.
- Our model suggests that EZ house price growth will cool this year, to around 3% year-over-year.
- Rising house prices boost household net worth, which is now an upside risk for consumption growth.
- We estimate that slowing net immigration since 2023 has cut the payroll run-rate by about 20K per month.
- Net immigration fell sharply to 205K in the year to June 2025, from a 944K peak in March 2023.
- Tighter visa rules, such as higher salary thresholds, have driven much of the immigration slowdown.
- The core CPI rose at an average monthly pace of just 0.13% between September and December.
- Tariff-driven price rises have slowed, with retailers resorting to cutting other costs instead.
- The run-rate of core goods prices will pick up again, but will undershoot last summer’s pace
- Sticky services inflation and high indexation leave Colombia far from target, despite modest relief in Q4.
- A 23% minimum-wage increase threatens to entrench inflation persistence and delay long-term convergence.
- BanRep faces pressure to tighten aggressively as expectations rise and LatAm peers’ prices stabilise.
- We are revising up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain, to reflect solid retail sales and industrial output data…
- …Spanish GDP likely rose by a punchy 0.7% in Q4, a touch better than in the third quarter.
- We still see an increase in Q4 growth in Italy, as the balance between net trade and inventories improves.
- Tobacco-duty hikes and a seasonal boost to travel prices should raise CPI inflation to 3.3% in December.
- We would forecast 3.4% inflation if the CPI collection date were December 16, instead of 9, as we assume.
- Airfares inflation would be 24pp higher than we assume if the CPI were collected on December 16.
- We look for an underwhelming 0.2% rise in retail sales in November, with control sales unchanged.
- A raft of indicators suggests consumers are tiring; we look for spending growth of just 1% in Q4.
- The Fed is still independent; a grand jury is unlikely to bring an indictment against Chair Powell.
