Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
- …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
- A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%.
- We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data.
- German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
Lower mortgage rates start to lend a hand.
- In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.
- In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.
In one line: Decent headline, dovish selling price expectations.
- Reliable surveys point to September payrolls rising at a similarly slow pace as the past couple months.
- Seasonal problems signal a jump in hospitality jobs, but federal policies likely weighed on education jobs.
- The unemployment rate likely crept up, while a calendar quirk probably dampened average earnings.
- Import growth is far outpacing exports in Brazil, as the strong BRL and Chinese goods shift trade flows.
- High reserves and slowing demand are buffers, but financing gaps leave Brazil vulnerable to shocks.
- Mexico’s labour market is weakening, with formal job creation stalling, wages rising and capex subdued.
- Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone.
- The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
Turnaround in consumers’ spending built on shaky foundations.
In one line: Consistent with a rebound in GDP in Q3.
In one line: Another one for relatively hawkish policymakers.
Tokyo headline inflation steady, after launch of childcare subsidies
- Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
- Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
- The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO LAUNCH INVESTMENT STIMULUS SOON
- - BOJ SHOULD STILL HIKE, DESPITE POLITICAL RUCTIONS
- - KOREA’S EXPORTS TUMBLE IN SEPTEMBER
- Spending numbers up to August point to 3% growth in third quarter consumption...
- ...But that pace looks unsustainable, given the myriad headwinds facing households.
- Real after-tax incomes are flatlining, the saving rate is already low, and balance sheets are more fragile.
