Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: Retail sales stabilises, but risks remain.
- Solid increases in consumers’ spending in October and November point to a 2½-to-3% gain in Q4…
- …But the sustainable pace now is far lower, given weak income growth and a rock-bottom saving rate.
- FOMC members’ forecasts for Q4 core PCE inflation were too high; they’re unduly gloomy about 2026 too.
- Inflation is still contained in Mexico, but excise taxes and services are slowing the final stage of disinflation.
- Sticky core inflation and firmer consumption argue for Banxico to pause after an extended easing cycle.
- Trade uncertainty, tariffs and USMCA risk reinforce the need for cautious policy in H1.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- President Trump has backed down on Greenland, bringing relief to Nuuk, Copenhagen and markets.
- The EZ budget deficit widened in Q3, driven mainly by a significant increase in Germany’s deficit.
- Risks to Germany’s fiscal push remain tilted towards near-term disappointment on growth.
- December’s public finances report showed borrowing was below the OBR’s most recent projections.
- The shaky foundations of the Budget create a risk of looser fiscal policy in the coming years.
- Risks are tilted towards a sell-off in the gilt market as investors re-price in long-term fiscal pressures.
- In one line: Underlying inflation remians sticky, even though headline CPI is set to temporarily slow in the first half of 2026.
- In one line: Enough to allow the MPC to wait until April to cut again.
- In one line: The BI rate won’t go anywhere this year.
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
- In one line: Just about enough to salvage Q4.
- Tax refunds this year likely will exceed 2025’s total by about $90B, equal to 0.4% of disposable income...
- ...Most refunds will be made over the next three months, facilitating a temporary jump in spending.
- Low confidence and saving, however, mean we expect only one-third of the extra cash to be spent.
- Brazil — Legal battles and electoral risk
- Colombia — Risk premium rises ahead of elections
- Peru — Politics unsettled, markets remain resilient
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- The EU, following the Mercosur deal, looks all set to sign the “mother of all deals” with India.
- A trade deal involving energy could secure key markets for EU manufacturing, and energy imports.
- Both India and the EU are motivated to get a deal done at the end of January.
- Tobacco duty and a jump in airfares drove up CPI inflation to 3.4% in December, a touch above our call.
- We note a few obvious erratic factors, with a January airfares correction likely balanced by solid hotel prices.
- Inflation gives rate-setters little reason to rush to cut next month, but we see a final rate reduction in April.
In one line: China’s LPR on hold in January; targeted structural rate cuts unclog credit supply and hopefully induce more loan demand.
In one line: Investor were optimistic ahead of the stand-off over Greenland; EZ construction sector turning a corner.
In one line: China inflation was firmer in December, but sustained reflation remains challenging
In one line: Bank of Korea drops its easing bias as currency stability takes priority
