No change to the benign picture.
US
In one line: Hit by falling inventories; productivity fell further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s FX reserve jump reflects reduced capital outflow pressure, as the dollar weakens and U.S. yields fall
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Confirming that output fell in each of the big four in October.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough to convince us that net trade was a boost to GDP in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still struggling at the start of Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's exports have bottomed out but are set for a weak recovery
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Deflation in Thailand will stay for at least one more month
A reminder that any recovery in Philippine domestic demand will be bumpy
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
- But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
- Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s disinflation is continuing, despite recent upside surprises due to temporary seasonal factors.
- Core inflation is still falling, opening the door to rate cuts as the economy struggles.
- The outlook is benign thanks to the MXN, but key threats remain, particularly on the policy front.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thailand’s brief spell of CPI deflation should end in January, despite November’s downside surprise.
- We still believe average inflation will fall sharply in 2024, even if power tariffs shoot up next month.
- Sales growth in the Philippines kicked off Q4 poorly, but the nascent and fragile recovery remains intact.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ GDP growth was stung by falling inventories in Q3, offsetting a rise in public and private spending.
- The slowdown in investment is intensifying, but the outlook for household consumption is brightening.
- We now think EZ GDP will rise by 0.5% this year, and next year too; no upward inflation pressures here.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
- ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
- ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
- …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
- Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
