Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
In one line: Our PM composite PMI points to another solid increase in GDP in Q1.
- US - Liberation Day to reduce uncertainty, but at what inflation cost?
- EUROZONE - Data signal an ECB pause in April, ‘Liberation Day’ permitting
- UK - Cuts and creative accounting will restore the fiscal headroom
- CHINA+ - The BoJ to focus on tariff impact, as food inflation builds again
- EM ASIA - Unsurprisingly, Taiwan’s central bank continues to hold rates
- LATAM - Tough days for Banxico demand bold monetary policy action
- BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
- …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
- Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
- Korean export growth accelerated in March, but due to post-holiday effects and front-loading or orders.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped in March, despite a robust new export order reading.
- Firms are worried about tariff hikes and political risks, with the impeachment ruling due on Friday.
- We still think the data support the idea of an ECB pause in April, but what will happen on tariffs today?
- EZ core inflation fell nicely in March, but it will snap back in April as Easter effects reverse.
- Services activity in Switzerland is coming off the boil at the start of the year.
- We expect zero GDP growth in February as services and construction offset falling industrial output.
- Risks to our call are broadly balanced, though manufacturing is subject to tariff-driven uncertainty.
- We continue to forecast 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1.
In one line: We now see the March EZ HICP up by 0.7% m/m, and by 2.2% y/y.
- In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.
- Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
- Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
- Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.
- Chile’s economic data for February show weakness, but growth momentum remains positive for Q1.
- Geopolitical tensions and the US trade war threaten Chile’s trade-dependent economy and key sectors.
- Argentina’s economy has started Q1 on a solid footing, but key challenges are emerging.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
- The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
- …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.
- China’s official March PMIs showed lasting, though waning, stimulus support for activity.
- The manufacturing index is still above 50, but sentiment slipped ahead of likely US tariff hikes today.
- Construction new orders dived, raising questions about local-government investment activity.
- We think EZ headline and core inflation fell by 0.1pp in March, to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Easter effects depressed German services inflation in March, but core goods inflation in Italy jumped.
- German retail sales were stronger at the start of 2025 than we expected; upside risk to Q1 growth?
- Consumers are raising credit-card borrowing rapidly and cutting saving to support spending.
- Liquid asset accumulation shows households saving the least since August 2023.
- Falling finance raised by corporates, however, suggests investment will stagnate in early 2025.
