Pantheon Publications

EZ Datanote: SNB Rate Decision, Q2 2025

In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

Global Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, June, 2025

• In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Monetary policy meeting, Brazil, June 2025

• In one line: COPOM surprises with a 25bp hike but signals a pause.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 June 2025: Japanese exports fall

Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Eurozone, May 2025

In one line:  A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2025 US Monitor The FOMC's forecast of continued low unemployment is wishful thinking

• Many FOMC participants raised their rate forecasts, but Mr. Powell says “no one... has a lot of conviction”.
• The Committee is overlooking several indicators that point to a material rise in unemployment ahead.
• The slump in single family construction is deepening, another headwind to activity and employment.

Samuel TombsUS

20 June 2025 LatAm Monitor Intensifying political noise in a shifting global context

• Brazil — Bolsonaro probe deepens, fiscal risks rise
• Mexico — Judicial reform starting to backfire
• Colombia —  Violence, reform and fiscal crisis

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts

• The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
• …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
• The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Negative rates in Switzerland still coming this year

• The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut. 
• The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long… 
• ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2025 UK Monitor MPC keeps rates on hold and guidance unchanged

• The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
• Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
• We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.

Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 June 2025: Japanese exports fall

Japanese exports fall as US tariff hikes slam auto shipments

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 June 2025

Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Front-running of Thai exports expanding, but H2 outlook souring

• Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
• …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
• Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 June 2025 China+ Monitor Japanese auto exports bear the brunt of US tariff hikes

• Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time since September, hit by US tariff hikes.
• Still, exports held up better than the market expected, as exporters cut prices and shipments to the EU rose.
• The bond market faces risks from July’s upper house election, despite the BoJ’s supportive policy tweak.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 June 2025 Eurozone Monitor Early evidence points to drag on Q2 GDP from services net trade

• The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services. 
• Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking. 
• Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone