Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Reverses year-end gains, price pressures intensify.
In one line: Stung by a plunge in aerospace output.
In one line: Momentum is building, but running well ahead of the survey data.
Indonesia’s dream of 6% for 2026 could become reality
Thai deflation now looks set to stick around until mid-year
Philippine inflation is back in the BSP’s range; still expecting a February cut
Too unreliable to be of much use.
- Openings fell in December to their lowest level since September 2020; AI is weighing more on hiring.
- Small business openings are falling, casting doubt over the upbeat payrolls signal from the NFIB survey.
- The quits rate still points to a further decline in wage growth this year; the Fed has room to ease further.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
- …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
- The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.
- China has issued key commentary on its financial future, with RMB reserve-currency status in focus.
- Its ambition goes beyond reserve currency, though, to becoming a major financial power too.
- Structural constraints and other deficiencies limit RMB reserve status, despite its progress in global usage.
- Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will…
- …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25.
- German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.
- A dovish five-to-four MPC vote to hold rates alongside changes to guidance signal a March rate cut.
- The MPC slashed its two-year-ahead inflation projection by 30bp, justifying two rate cuts this year.
- We shift our call to a March rate cut, from April before, but think sticky pay will stop the MPC easing again.
In one line: The dovish pressure to remain on the ECB going into the March forecasts.
In one line: The dovish pressure to remain on the ECB going into the March forecasts.
In one line: China's RatingDog services PMI posts a modest gain, largely reflecting pre-holiday seasonality
- In one line: Industrial momentum weakens; outlook remains subdued.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index is uncorrelated with the official data; its January jump should be ignored.
- The US is too big an economy for the 2026 World Cup to have anything more than a trivial impact on GDP.
- We expect a small lift to consumers’ spending in the summer, but even that might be hard to see in the data.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
- The January PMI hit an 18-month high, consistent with 0.3-to-0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1.
- Jobs continue to fall, according to the PMI, as the payroll-tax hike forces firms to cut back.
- But falling jobs are structural; PMI price balances were broadly steady above inflation-target-consistent levels.
In one line: A last dovish hurrah, probably.
