Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Output is undershooting leading indicators; net trade boosted Q1 GDP growth.
- In one line: Industrial activity continues to recover, but momentum remains fragile.
- IIn one line: Banxico cuts rates, likely ending the easing cycle.
- In one line: Banxico cuts rates, likely ending the easing cycle.
HOUSE PRICES JUMP IN FEBRUARY...
- ...BUT WE STILL EXPECT HOUSE PRICE INFLATION OF 1% IN Q4
Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.
- Payrolls have been flattered by the weather and a temporary burst of activity in the goods sector.
- Most indicators of hiring intentions and expected wage growth have weakened in recent months.
- The FOMC will be more worried about the labor market than inflation by the end of this year.
- Chile’s weak goods production and softer capex are offsetting decent consumer spending growth.
- The fuel-related inflation surge reinforces BCCh’s caution, even if domestic-driven forces are curbed.
- External shocks, oil volatility and weaker activity leave policymakers facing a difficult trade-off.
- Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
- …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.
- A US delegation was already in Beijing last week, paving the way for a likely visit from Mr. Trump this Thursday.
- April’s rebound in FX reserves reflects swings in market risk appetite as the war in Iran continues.
- China’s MoF plans to issue a record level of Dim Sum bonds in Hong Kong to rebalance liquidity offshore.
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- The bar to the MPC returning to rate cuts, if oil prices fall, looks high, as growth and inflation are holding up.
- But a thin Iran-US deal, if signed, would lead us to shift to one or no hikes this year.
- Disastrous local election results for the Labour Party will keep political risk elevated
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Core inflation remains sticky, keeping Banxico cautious.
- In one line: No surprises.
- In one line: No surprises.
The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further
- The tariffs passed through fully to the CPI by March, but energy-driven goods price hikes will take time...
- Used auto prices and airline fares probably jumped in April, while rents likely rose at twice their trend...
- ...The BLS will use a calculation that will unwind its no-change assumption for rents last October.
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
