Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Softer than feared services offset by global price pressures, further inflation acceleration lies ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Seasonally adjusted house prices rise in December to cap a strong year, but house-price inflation will be even stronger in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Isabel Schnabel has added fuel to the idea that the ECB’s easing cycle will end soon; we agree.
- President Trump’s latest tariff threat—on cars, chips and drugs—would have a small impact on EZ GDP.
- The CDU/CSU will win the German election, but not by enough for a majority; brace for coalition talks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's residential price decline steady in holiday season
Japan's real export growth less impressive than headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Encouraging, but far from definitive.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: The jobs market holds up better than expected, generating strong wage growth that will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s local governments have begun using special- bond funds to stabilise the residential market.
- But in some cases it’s more a matter of moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket.
- More property-policy tweaking is likely during next month’s Two Sessions; gradual progress in prospect.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Mexico — Trade, security and tariffs
- Colombia — Leadership on shaky ground
- Chile — Presidential race gathering momentum
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Europe will need to raise annual defence spending by €250B-to-450B over the next eight years.
- A joint EU financing programme for defence is coming; it could be a big package, close to €1T.
- Inflation and a low multiplier will eat up most of the boost to real GDP from rising defence spending.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation surged as airfares unwound erratic weakness, school fees rose and food prices jumped.
- Rising core goods inflation is offsetting weaker-than-expected services inflation.
- The MPC will have to be careful as inflation heads to 3.7% in September; 4% is not out of the question.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
