Pantheon Publications

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, April

• In one line: Electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2025

Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past

Global Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, US, April, 2025

• In one line: Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April

Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.

5 May 2025 US Monitor Uncertainty over tariffs hasn't killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt

• Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
• ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
• We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.

5 May 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep resumes easing with caution

• Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
• BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
• Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating  fundamentals.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April

Households stunned by the tariff shock.

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, March

Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, May

BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1 May 2025: BoJ adopts bearish inflation outlook

BoJ's newly bearish tone on inflation risks supports our view that rate hikes are on hold this year

PM Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, April, 2025

• In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.

Global Datanote: BanRep Announcement, Colombia, April, 2025

• In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.

April 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM SHIELDS ITSELF AMID TARIFF TURMOIL…

• …BUT VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS REMAIN ELEVATED

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, April 2025

• In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending / Pending Home Sales

Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.

Global Datanote: Advance GDP, US, Q1, 2025

• In one line: Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.