- GDP is trending up by 0.8% month-to-month annualised, despite January’s small output fall.
- Break-adjusted five-year inflation expectations hit a record high since 2009; the MPC must be cautious.
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to keep interest rates on hold this Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Industrial output slumps further; outlook remains weak.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Short-term volatility as stamp duty relief ends in April, but house prices will still rise 4% in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Food disinflation strikes again; consumer non-durables IP stages a partial rebound.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Retail sales growth remains healthy, driven by strong real wage growth and rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Almost reversing the jump in December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Brazil’s inflation in February hit its highest rate since 2023, as underlying pressures are persisting, for now.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in January, with trade-war uncertainty weighing heavily.
- The manufacturing sector is struggling as US tariffs threaten Mexico’s economic backbone and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s shockingly low February CPI was no surprise to us; now expect near-term stability in food CPI…
- …Look for the consensus to move closer to our 3.8% average CPI forecast for 2025; an April cut is a go.
- IP growth rebounded strongly in January, pointing to an early manufacturing cushion for Q1 growth.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing is on track for a strong Q1, but trade uncertainty looms over the rest of the year.
- The EU’s retaliation against US metals tariffs still leaves a small overall share of trade directly affected.
- EU import tariffs point to upside risk to consumer price inflation in core goods, in theory.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices grew by 4.6% in 2024 as borrowing costs fell and affordability improved.
- We continue to expect official house prices to rise by 4% year-over-year in 2025.
- Sticky rates represent a downside risk to house prices, but homeowners can still bear the costs.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A not-too-damning payback from the modest front-running, pre-VAT hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with an eight-to-one vote in favour.
- GDP growth and inflation overshot MPC expectations, but services inflation and wages undershot.
- We expect stubborn wage growth to limit the MPC to two more rate cuts this year, in May and November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tight financial conditions are a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia sank in January as the pre-VAT-hike front-loading unwound.
- The current recovery in consumer confidence—if it holds—points to 2% average sales growth in 2025…
- …Faster growth will be hard to achieve, with spending already above-average in terms of income use.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
